CEBV Weekly: June 16, 2025
House Republicans choose to try to go it alone. The DOA budget and the real budget. Where we go from here.
Last week, we reported a continuing stalemate between House and Senate Republicans, with tempers running high. As always, chaos like this is a gift in the form of the opportunity to make our voices heard — but this week’s events landed on another level entirely. House Republicans spun out by themselves to advance a Freedom Caucus-driven, go-it-alone “budget” that’s really more of a petulant demand letter.
Performance art. House Republicans introduced their own budget bills (created in a vacuum with input from no one but themselves) on Wednesday, advanced them through committee on Thursday, and passed them out of the chamber late on Friday night the same way they were created: alone. Republicans Chris Lopez, R-16, and Justin Wilmeth, R-2, were missing, and Democrats chose to go home rather than participate in the charade.
Key author Matt Gress (R-4) described the sham budget as “a key procedural step” that puts House Republican demands on paper so the Senate can incorporate them. But it’s meaningless, of course. House Republicans walked away from budget talks with the governor and the Senate several weeks ago, and those budget talks have continued without them. As key negotiator Stephanie Stahl Hamilton (D-21) pointed out, “You can't just show up after 3 weeks and say ‘here's the plan, you're not going to like it.’“
Reckless. The House Republican demands would slash public education funding, impose cuts on rural hospitals, and attack those in our society who have the least, from food stamp and Medicaid recipients to DACA students at public universities. It’s dangerous from an election-denialist perspective, too, as it strips the Secretary of State’s office of key funding and bolsters MAGA conspiracy theorist Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap in his fight with the county board of supervisors. Unsurprisingly, the hard-right “Freedom Caucus” is crowing about it; they seem to have forgotten that their demand letter only amounts to a “historic win” if the Senate and governor approve it too. We won’t go into further detail, because there’s no point organizing to oppose a budget that’s dead on arrival.
Fractured. Though House Republicans made a show of voting on the sham budget as a bloc, their actual positions span the gamut. Some Freedom Caucus types like Justin Olson (R-10) want even less spending, an out-of-touch demand that would decimate the already precarious position of many chronically underfunded state services. Others, like Theresa Martinez (R-16), are more realistic (though still played along with the charade). On Friday night, Martinez said she worried about the level of cuts in the House’s demand letter and that she was voting for it reluctantly, “with caution and regret.” We’ve heard many House Republicans were unhappy with the proposal, and voted for it only because of political pressure (knowing it would go nowhere) or because they thought doing so might lend their chamber some additional leverage.
Buying votes. Throughout the week, it was clear that House Republicans were attempting to buy votes for their silliness. Along with budget bills, they introduced a bill authorizing a special election for a town in Myron Tsosie (D-7)’s district, but didn’t advance it through committee, presumably after Tsosie told them it wasn’t sufficient to get him on board. However, Jeff Weninger (R-13) appears to be a cheaper date: the House dusted off and passed his long-stalled, absurd HCR2035, which means Republicans have placed their first referral on our November 2026 ballot.1
The real budget. House Republicans’ bonkers ideas are all non-starters with Gov. Hobbs and Democrats, of course — all the more since Hobbs and the Senate have kept budget negotiations going. Hobbs has been very clear that she won’t sign the House’s sham proposal, and the Senate plans to introduce the negotiated budget on Monday.
Abandoning a sinking ship. Though the House Republican is publicly presenting a united front, if you scratch the surface just a little bit, the cracks emerge. We’re told that some of the more pragmatic members have started approaching their Senate colleagues to try to get their priorities added to the negotiated (i.e., real) Senate product. And with key negotiator Matt Gress (R-4) preparing to skip out for his wedding in Italy, these fractures will likely only deepen.
Saving the best for last. We’re hearing that the stadium giveaway bill will NOT be wrapped into the negotiated budget as we feared, but will remain a stand-alone bill. This is very good news: a stand-alone bill is much easier to kill. Continue reaching out directly to your own state senator and representatives to oppose HB2704, which would redirect taxpayer dollars to subsidize the billionaire owner of the Diamondbacks even as schools and public safety face budget cuts.
⏰ If you have 5 minutes: Directly contact Gov. Hobbs (602-542-4331 / engage@az.gov), along with your state senator and representatives, and ask them to oppose billionaire tax handout HB2704. Refer to this list in the May 12 Weekly of specific lawmakers who need extra attention, and remember: Hobbs’s responsiveness and accountability to her base (us) will improve her re-election chances for 2026. This is more important than ever, so if you’ve already done this, please do it again! Sustained pressure is needed to make our voices heard.
⏰⏰ If you have 15 minutes: Also directly contact your own state representatives. If you have Republican representatives, push them to abandon their sham “budget” and get on board with the actual, negotiated budget. If you have Democratic representatives, thank them for fighting. Urge them to hold strong and ask that they refuse to concede to House Republicans’ ridiculous demands.
⏰⏰⏰ If you have 30 minutes: Also choose one bill (or more) off CEBV’s tracking list of legislation that is still alive, and directly contact your state senator and representatives to oppose it. Budget pressure is mounting with just 14 days until the end of the fiscal year, and these bills have become bargaining chips that could be used to purchase Republican lawmakers’ votes.
⏰⏰⏰⏰ If you have 60 minutes: Join us on Zoom for our next CEBV Happy Hour conversation, with a state legislative rundown and budget updates. Happy Hour meets every Sunday at 4 PM through the end of legislative session. Sign up in advance here.
Bills still out there. Anything on this tracking list of bills that remain alive could be revived and passed in these waning days of session. Our priority for each bill is based on not just the bill’s dangers, but its chances of passage, as well as the likelihood that Gov. Hobbs will veto it (or, in the case of HCR and SCR referrals, the fact that she can’t). Your voice is crucial for helping to keep these bad ideas from menacing our state.
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2025 Session Timeline
Monday, 6/30 Last day to pass a budget before state government shuts down
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Driven by a bonkers conspiracy theory that says international government is hellbent on curtailing our freedom of travel, HCR2035 asks voters to ban monitoring vehicle miles of travel. The Senate has already passed a duplicate bill from perennial conspiracy theorist Jake Hoffman, which means this nonsense is going on our ballots. Whee!