And now, the moment no one’s been waiting for: On Monday, after taking a seven-week vacation, the Arizona House and Senate are set to resume the longest legislative session in state history.
As always, CEBV is here to try to help make sense of it all. And if we’ve learned one thing over our years of watching this state legislature, it’s that while yes, anything could happen, certain outcomes are much more likely than others.
Prop 400
This effort to refer a transportation sales tax renewal to voters is one of the few outstanding issues before a legislature that should have gone home months ago.
Republican House Speaker Ben Toma told press early last week that lawmakers will advance a Prop 400 deal on Monday, along with some “administrative types of things.” On Sunday afternoon, Senate President Warren Petersen told press that he, House Speaker Ben Toma and Gov. Hobbs had reached an agreement on Prop 400 and that they had secured the necessary votes for passage.
“Key to the breakthrough was the removal of a planned light rail line that would run west from downtown Phoenix and loop around the state Capitol. Lawmakers, including Speaker Ben Toma, said they were offended at the notion of the rail running past their offices.” — Mary Jo Pitzl for the Arizona Republic
Long-stagnant bill SB1102 is scheduled for a hearing Monday. SB1102 already has a striker attached from David Livingston (R-28) that deals with Prop 400, but in its current form, drastically underfunds light rail and contains unrelated provisions on housing and other matters. All this could theoretically be stripped out with a floor amendment, but Livingston has previously trumpeted his unwillingness to compromise, saying MAG and Hobbs could either accept his proposal or let Prop 400 expire. The substance of whatever deal Hobbs may have worked out with Republican legislative leaders remains to be seen.
Bluster from Petersen notwithstanding, it’s unclear whether the reported deal will truly have the votes to pass. The notoriously touchy and volatile MAGA caucus is hysterically dragging the reported deal on social media through its own upside-down view of reality. Plus, several lawmakers who might otherwise have supported a deal are out of town and don’t plan to show up Monday.
To quote the Arizona Agenda: “It’s still unclear whether (the legislature will) end the year on a high note by pulling off a grand bargain, or on a low note, admitting that after months of dragging negotiations, they couldn’t reach a compromise to achieve one of the most basic government functions: to build roads.“
Rental sales tax ban (again)
Remember the ban on cities charging rental sales tax that Hobbs vetoed earlier this year? Last month, Republicans passed another version of the same bill. SB1131 would cost cities roughly $200 million per year, defunding city services (like police and fire) and earning opposition from the powerful League of Cities and Towns. The new version contains a milquetoast nod to trying to ensure renters will get to hold onto the money, but doesn’t include any enforcement provisions — making it essentially the same bill as the previously vetoed one.
The fate of SB1131 is unclear. Though Republican leadership has transmitted plenty of other bills up to the governor’s office over the interim as legally required, they’ve held onto this one. This has prompted accusations that they’re holding onto it for political purposes, as well as speculation of intent to try to use it as a bargaining chip on a less-than-ideal Prop 400 — and Gov. Hobbs’ willingness to go along with that. We hope she doesn’t get suckered into yet another bad deal.
Fiscal tsunami incoming
The JLBC’s newest state budget report is out, and the bill from former Gov. Ducey's slash-and-burn policies is coming due.
Between revenue cuts and ESA vouchers, Arizona is squandering a jaw-dropping $2 billion in funds this year alone:
$761.5 million for the final phase-in of Ducey’s 2.5% "flat" income tax cut
$457.9 million for cities to offset a drop in revenue sharing from Ducey’s "flat" tax
$259.8 million for the one-time individual income tax rebate in this year's budget
$625 million on the ESA voucher program ($425 million more than budgeted)
And, of course, lawmakers have also spent every cent of our state’s accumulated surplus, much of it on pork-barrel projects.
Just like our state legislature, CEBV doesn’t have a surplus — but, unlike our state legislature, we use our resources wisely. Help us continue our work with a donation:
If one thing is for sure, our Republican majority will put off taking any action until absolutely forced to. But that day is coming, and soon. It's little wonder our state finances are expected to be in the red next year — and it’s anyone’s guess how, with no money to spare, lawmakers will square up the huge bills which will continue to come due.
Alt-schools fiasco off the rails
The $1 billion failed experiment that is Arizona’s out-of-control ESA voucher program suffered further proof of its unsustainability this week:
Gov. Hobbs’ budget office is projecting a $950 million cost for this coming school year (that’s 1/8 of the entire state K-12 budget); $319 million of that is unbudgeted
Attorney General Kris Mayes warned parents that ESA vouchers come with the loss of many rights and protections, as well as the risk of potential scams from voucher schools and vendors that receive no vetting from the state
Gov. Hobbs’ office is demanding answers from Supt. Horne after the Department of Homeland Security stepped in to investigate an ESA voucher data breach
ESA voucher program director Christine Accurso (known for organizing a harassment campaign against petition circulators last summer bankrolled by pro-voucher dark-money interests) and another administrator abruptly resigned

For more on this topic, we highly recommend reading this week’s Save Our Schools Arizona Weekly Report. (If you like what you see there, be sure to subscribe.)
Lurching further into extremism
And you thought this legislature couldn’t get any nuttier? Last week, controversial1 Arizona Supreme Court justice Clint Bolick swore in LD2’s newest state senator: his election-denying, public-school-hating, voter-disenfranchising wife, Shawnna Bolick.
To be fair, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors didn’t have much of a choice. State law required them to choose one of the three options the district’s precinct committeemen gave them, all of which were horrible. But Bolick’s continued election denialism and conspiracy theorizing (she called the 2020 election “rigged” as recently as May), her attempts to disenfranchise Arizona voters, and her clear and flagrant disregard for the law (including a refusal to recuse her vote on a salary raise for her husband) make her a truly awful pick.
One small consolation: her attempt to appear more moderate in order to win nomination has engendered an open battle with the Legislature’s MAGA caucus. We can’t wait to see how that shakes out.
The lawmaker grift continues
Rep. Jacqueline Parker has now joined Sen. Wendy Rogers in “essentially stealing taxpayer dollars” by claiming on state per diem logs that she lives in Pinal County — even though she attested under penalty of perjury to the Secretary of State’s office that she lives in Mesa, which of course is in Maricopa County. This has allowed her to pocket over $30,000 more in per diem and mileage payments than she would otherwise be entitled to.
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House Republican leaders seem unconcerned. Speaker Ben Toma dismissively compared the scandal to “virtue signaling,” and told press that if his members wanted to opt out of per diem payments, they’d have to opt out for their entire two-year term (all but guaranteeing none of them would).
What’s next?
More votes? Speaker Toma has told press he doesn't plan to hold votes on any other bills this session. We hope that sticks. As of this writing, the Senate hasn’t released any calendars to signal their plans, and we’ve heard that Sen. Ken Bennett (R-1) is determined to try to resurrect his twice-failed ballot images bill.
Director nominations? Along with Prop 400, addressing these nominations provides Republican legislative leaders with a paper-thin rationale for remaining in session. Last month, Senate Republicans on the director nominations committee threw a fit over one of Gov. Hobbs’ executive orders, and announced a plan to refuse to consider any of her agency nominees. Just weeks later, they quietly rescinded that, but wouldn’t say which nominees would be getting hearings or when.
We’re unsurprised to report that they haven’t held or scheduled a single hearing since then — hearings that can only be held when the legislature is in session. So far, just three of Gov. Hobbs' two dozen nominees have successfully passed through a Senate confirmation process; the rest remain in limbo. It’s an irresponsible political game that puts at risk many services Arizonans depend on. Senate Republicans could theoretically hold more hearings, but we’re not counting on it.
Sine die or holding pattern? With the exception of emergency-clause bills (like the recent Rio Verde solution) and the budget’s feed bill, which gets its own effective date, nothing passed this session can go into effect until 90 days after sine die (a fancy Latin term indicating lawmakers are adjourning for good). Toma appears to be taking this to heart, telling press the legislature will adjourn for the year on Monday. From your lips to God’s ears, sir: there’s no word on what Senate President Petersen, who is famously rumored to want to keep the legislature in session as long as possible, is planning.
⏰ Help us register young voters! Did you know that a staggering 86% of young people (18-24) who were registered to vote actually turned out in 2020? The barrier isn’t apathy, it’s access. Once they’re registered, they vote — so CEBV is partnering with the Civics Center to help register every high school student in Arizona.

And because we believe the most effective push will come from young people themselves, we’re looking for high school students to run voter registration drives at their Arizona high schools. It’s easier than it sounds: we’ll provide training, materials, support, and Democracy in a Box (stickers, posters customized to the school or mascot, pens, clipboards and more) to get the drives going.
Are you a high school student? Sign up here. Not in high school? Share the sign-up link with your favorite youth (kids, grandkids, nieces/nephews, neighbors, etc.), or give it to a teacher who can share it with one of their favorite youth.
NOTE: You don't need to be a registered voter to register others to vote — and you can pre-register yourself to vote if you will turn 18 by November 8, 2024.
Questions? Or simply need a dose of inspiration? Watch our recent conversation with Laura Brill of the Civics Center.
This legislature is profoundly unserious, continuing to ram through stacks of bills that range from ridiculous to horrifying.
Vetoes since our last newsletter:
SB1095, Carroll (R-28), requiring early ballot envelopes to carry a written warning that ballots returned after the Friday before the election could cause delayed election results. For years, voters have been advised to mail their ballots back by the Wednesday before the election. Vetoed 6/20.
SB1175, Kavanagh (R-3), would allow publicization of voter registration records, allow anyone to buy the precinct register as long as they say it's for a non-commercial purpose, and expands procedures for hand count audits. Vetoed 6/20.
SB1435, Wadsack (R-17), would move attorney licensing in Arizona from the State Bar to the Arizona Supreme Court, which would not be able to require an attorney to be a member of the bar to be licensed. The legislature’s nonpartisan rules attorneys told them the bill is unconstitutional. Vetoed 6/20.
SB1471, Kavanagh (R-3), would set up a hand-count audit as a “test,” measuring accuracy as well as the time and resources required to implement hand counting statewide. Driven by a false belief that machine counting is inherently suspect and susceptible to fraud. Vetoed 6/20.
SB1595, Mesnard (R-13), would make voters present ID in order to drop off their early ballots after 7 PM on the Friday before election day. This would complicate voting for over 1 in 5 voters, resulting in more ballots being rejected. Voters just refused in November to adopt new ID restrictions for early ballots. Vetoed 6/20.
HB2210, Wilmeth (R-2), would have given school board members at least the same level of access to school district office facilities and staff as employees of the school district office. Vetoed 6/19.
HB2504, Parker (R-10), would expand school tuition organization (STO) vouchers to students in foster care. STOs, "Arizona's first vouchers," are dollar-for-dollar tax credits to private schools that result in significantly less money for public schools. Vetoed 6/19.
Are there more vetoes in Arizona’s future? It’s possible: CEBV is tracking 25 bills that still await a floor vote and several others that could be brought up on reconsideration.
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Justice Bolick has come under fire for racism (wearing a dreadlocks wig and singing under the pseudonym “Rasta Clint”) and conflict of interest (he was spotted with his wife at a conference for libertarian bill mill ALEC). Bolick will be up for retention in 2024.