CEBV Weekly: January 23, 2023
Solving inflation by putting out a fire with jet fuel, and other bright ideas
As our state settles into the politically divided government it will have for at least the next two years, our elected representatives have discussions to hold, connections to strengthen, and important decisions to make. So, naturally, what has our Republican-led Legislature been focused on? They’re regulating pronouns and — oh, yes — advancing more tax cuts. It seems it’s easier for some to pretend that nothing has changed.
At last week’s Joint Appropriations Committee hearing, when Gov. Hobbs’ analysts presented her budget proposal, Republicans including David Livingston (R-28), Barbara Parker (R-10) and Matt Gress (R-4) appeared to take great pleasure in being rude, classless and disrespectful. They exhibited behavior that, in the corporate sector, would likely get them fired.
Livingston closed the hearing by saying he foresees a government shutdown, because he can’t see a way to reconcile Republicans’ budget vision with the governor’s, nor any way to negotiate. It’s easy to chalk this conflict up to a bunch of spoiled, entitled politicians who have never had to share power and have no idea how to. But if you look deeper, the conflict is driven by a fundamental misunderstanding of how to handle rising inflation in Arizona.
The extreme right wing thinks the best cure for inflation is to cut state revenues even further, eliminating rental and food taxes and occupational licensing fees, and slashing taxes on corporations. The justification for this short-sighted, misleading scheme is that it will “put hundreds of dollars back in the pockets of our hard-working taxpayers.” However, ASU economist Dennis Hoffman, who's advised every Arizona governor in the last 40 years on economic issues, has widely panned these ideas. Hoffman warned against the impact of excessive across-the-board tax cuts, saying, "At some level, you've got to pay the bills.” (Case in point: this fascinating, disturbing New York Times article on state legislatures nationwide that try to “do something,” but only end up pushing prices higher.)
Hoffman also criticized the misguided idea that tax cuts can mean inflation relief for consumers:
"Trying to solve inflation by putting more money in people's pockets is like trying to put out a fire with jet fuel. It just doesn't work."
Cities and towns vehemently oppose the cuts, and it's not hard to see why: they would drain nearly $1 billion in revenues from state and local coffers every year. That would hit cities hard, especially small and rural ones with few other sources of revenue. If cities are forced to eliminate one-third of their tax revenues, they will also be forced either to raise taxes elsewhere or cut critical services. And nobody wants that. When the bills were heard in committees last week, not a single person showed up to support them.
Nevertheless, the Republican caucus is hellbent on advancing these ill-considered, slash-and-burn plans. The House Rules Committee will likely rubber-stamp corporate income and sales tax cut bills HB2003 and HB2061 on Monday; a full floor vote on them can’t be far behind.
Meanwhile, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC), which does the Legislature’s fiscal analyses, warned lawmakers last week that our state budget surplus will evaporate completely over the next two years. These projections don’t even factor in Gov. Ducey's massive 2021 tax cuts for the wealthy, which are forecast to cost the state an additional $2 billion a year in revenues. (As the JLBC delicately states on page 4 of their analysis: “With tax cuts, FY23 & FY24 net growth is negative.”)
We’re digging ourselves a hole that’s too deep to climb out of. What happens to Arizona then?
⏰ If you have 10 minutes: Contact your representatives and ask them to oppose HB2003 and HB2061, and to focus instead on policies that will move Arizona forward without cratering our bottom line.
⏰⏰ If you have 20 minutes: Use Request to Speak on bills in committee.
⏰⏰⏰ If you have 30 minutes: Contact House Republicans as listed on the good bills we’ve highlighted.
⏰⏰⏰⏰ If you have 45 minutes: Attend a committee hearing. This week we recommend Senate Elections, which meets Monday at 2 PM in Senate Hearing Room 109.
⏰⏰⏰⏰⏰ If you have 60 minutes: Meet us on Zoom at 4pm on Sunday for our next CEBV Happy Hour.
Spotlight Bill 1: Attack on Direct Democracy
SCR1002 would ask voters to restrict their own direct democracy powers by requiring a 60% supermajority vote for constitutional amendments. It’s extra dangerous, because it wouldn’t go to the governor. All that’s needed is for both Republican-controlled chambers to pass the measure, and it heads to the 2024 ballot without an opportunity for Gov. Hobbs to veto it.
Functionally, voter passage of last year’s Prop 132 now means a 60% supermajority vote on all citizen’s initiatives: our current Arizona Supreme Court will likely rule it applies to every initiative in a case wending its way through the courts right now. This leaves constitutional amendments as the only remaining avenue for a ballot measure to pass with 50.1% of the vote. In other words, as long as supporters collect the higher number of signatures required to qualify the measure as a constitutional amendment, a simple majority vote at the ballot is all that’s needed. But SCR1002 closes that door.
Arizona has passed many ballot measures with less than 60% approval. The 1982 “motor voter” initiative allows people to register to vote at the DMV when they get a driver’s license. In 2006, we banned smoking indoors. More recently, we increased the minimum wage and approved more funding for public schools. Under Prop 132, none of these would have become law — and in our hyper-polarized political world, very few issues on either side of the aisle can muster 60%+ support.
SCR1002 is scheduled for Senate Elections Committee, Monday. Use RTS and contact the committee to OPPOSE.
Spotlight Bill 2: More Vouchers?!
Thought Arizona’s voucher programs were as big as they could get? Think again! HB2504 would expand eligibility for school tuition organization (STO) vouchers to students in foster care. This marks a return to voucher-pushers’ strategy of exploiting sympathetic populations in order to line private pockets with taxpayer dollars.
STOs are Arizona's first vouchers: dollar-for-dollar tax credits to private schools that result in significantly less money for public schools. Since the STO voucher program's creation, Arizona has lost out on over $2.1 billion in funding that would have otherwise gone into the general fund for use on all state priorities, including public education. The program has a contemptible record of being misused to line its founders’ pockets. Meanwhile, even after last year’s investments, our state's public school funding remains in the bottom 5 nationwide.
HB2504 is scheduled for House Education Committee, Tuesday. Use RTS and contact the committee to OPPOSE.
Spotlight Bill 3: Criminalizing Homelessness
HB2284 would create state-funded “tent cities” for individuals experiencing homelessness, and bans unhoused people from camping or storing property outside those areas. It would also ban “unauthorized sleeping” on state land, even as rising rents are pushing people to do so. The sponsor introduced a similar bill last year, which would have forced cities to enforce unconstitutional ordinances and instead accept state funding for “sanctioned encampments.”
Arizona has one of the worst homelessness crises in the nation. This bill segregates and criminalizes people without addressing the root causes of the crisis: “a vicious mix of inflation, stagnant wages, limited housing, and skyrocketing rent.” People experiencing homelessness need care, not more trauma. Opposed by the AZ Public Health Association and the City of Phoenix. Why not invest instead in the Housing Trust Fund (see HB2256 below) or one of these other, better options?
HB2284 is scheduled for House Health & Human Services Committee, Monday. Use RTS and contact the committee to OPPOSE.
SCR1002, sponsored by Anthony Kern (R-27), would ask voters to restrict their own direct democracy powers by requiring a supermajority vote on constitutional amendments. Last year’s Prop 132, which instituted a requirement for a 60% supermajority vote on tax measures, started out as applying to all voter-initiated ballot measures. That high bar doesn’t exist anywhere else in the country. The bill is motivated by majority lawmakers’ increasing frustration with measures they don’t like (voters’ frustration with lawmakers who don’t listen apparently doesn’t figure in) and their fear of losing control of the lawmaking process to Democrats. Resolutions don’t require the governor’s signature, so if both Republican-controlled chambers pass this measure, it would head to the 2024 ballot without Gov. Hobbs having the chance to veto. Scheduled for Senate Elections Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
HB2284, sponsored by David Livingston (R-28), would create state-funded “tent cities” for individuals experiencing homelessness, and bans unhoused people from camping or storing property outside those areas. It would also ban “unauthorized sleeping” on state land, even as rising rents are pushing more people toward that option. Arizona has one of the worst homelessness crises in the nation. This would segregate and criminalize people without addressing the root causes, “a vicious mix of inflation, stagnant wages, limited housing, and skyrocketing rent.” Why not invest in the Housing Trust Fund instead (see HB2256 below) or one of these other, better options? Opposed by the AZ Public Health Association and the City of Phoenix. Scheduled for House Health & Human Services Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
HB2504, sponsored by Barbara Parker (R-10), would expand the school tuition organization (STO) voucher program to students in foster care. STOs, or "Arizona's first vouchers," are dollar-for-dollar tax credits to private schools that result in significantly less money for public schools. Since the STO voucher program's creation, Arizona’s general fund has lost out on over $2.1 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, our state's public school funding remains in the bottom 5 nationwide. Scheduled for House Education Committee, Tuesday. OPPOSE.
HB2171, sponsored by Jennifer Longdon (D-5), would authorize a memorial at the state Capitol for Don Bolles, a journalist who exposed corruption in Arizona and was murdered for it in 1976 by a car bomb. The UN and others warn that media freedom is declining worldwide, and that burgeoning threats to the safety of journalists carry worrying consequences for human rights and democracy. This memorial would honor the sacrifices of journalists and recognize the importance of a free press. Scheduled for House Government Committee, Wednesday. SUPPORT.
HB2308, sponsored by Rachel Jones (R-17), would ban the Secretary of State from overseeing an election in which s/he is a candidate, instead being required to announce a replacement for those duties. This bill is driven by the false conspiracy theory that Katie Hobbs somehow faked her 2022 gubernatorial win through her electoral powers as Secretary of State. That’s just nonsense. In Arizona, as in the majority of states, an elected official is responsible for certifying statewide results, and elected officials routinely certify their own wins and losses. It's also common for elected officials to continue their duties while seeking higher offices. Scheduled for House Municipal Oversight & Elections Committee, Wednesday. OPPOSE.
HB2319, sponsored by Alexander Kolodin (R-3), sets up a legal conflict between the judiciary and legislative branches of government by declaring transparency the overarching goal for conducting elections, and declaring that existing court opinions on elections do not have any precedent if they conflict with this bill. It’s a poorly written bill, and a lawsuit waiting to happen (at our expense). Scheduled for House Municipal Oversight & Elections Committee, Wednesday. OPPOSE.
HB2322, sponsored by Alexander Kolodin (R-3), would codify into law the Secretary of State's July 2020 guide as the minimum standard for ballot signature verification, and broadens the role of challengers to the verification of questioned ballots. The signature verification process in Arizona already works well and should not be muddied by badly written legislation that is malevolent to our well-functioning early voting process. Scheduled for House Municipal Oversight & Elections Committee, Wednesday. OPPOSE.
HB2477, sponsored by Steve Montenegro (R-29), affirms the importance of the electoral college system for presidential elections. That system is an artifact that has long outlived its usefulness. It was designed to empower southern slave-owning whites, continues to adversely impact black voters by diluting their political power, and has handed victory to the loser of the popular vote twice in the past two decades, a schism that seriously undermines the legitimacy of our elections. Only 35% of Americans support keeping it. Scheduled for House Municipal Oversight & Elections Committee, Wednesday. OPPOSE.
These bills are almost certainly intended for a floor vote this week. From there they’ll head to the other chamber, then presumably up to the governor’s office — though it’s hard to imagine Gov. Hobbs signing any of these. (In fact, she’s said she probably won’t.) They are likely questionable attempts to create some badly needed Republican bargaining chips.
SB1009, sponsored by John Kavanagh (R-3), would make it a felony to damage or destroy any public or private monument or statue. The movement to remove Confederate monuments has grown since a white supremacist killed nine black people at a South Carolina church in 2015 and since a now-convicted and imprisoned police officer murdered George Floyd in 2020. This is the third straight year Kavanagh has introduced this bill. Damaging a statue simply does not rise to felony magnitude. Scheduled for Senate Rules Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
SB1011, sponsored by John Kavanagh (R-3), would make municipal elections, like mayors and city councils, partisan beginning in 2024. Local government officials are not fixing Republican or Democratic potholes. They should spend their time on local issues, not partisanship. Scheduled for Senate Rules Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
SB1013, sponsored by John Kavanagh (R-3), would do away with “free speech zones” on college campuses, instead allowing anyone who is “lawfully present” on a university campus to protest anywhere on campus the law permits them to be. This could give rise to protests in classrooms and other protected areas, creating serious safety issues. Apparently influenced by the Goldwater Institute, a wealthy right-wing lobbying firm. Scheduled for Senate Rules Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
SB1021, sponsored by John Kavanagh (R-3), would require the Attorney General to defend all laws passed by the legislature against all legal challenges, unless 2/3 of the members of both the House and Senate Judiciary Committees vote otherwise. Likely motivated by Mayes’ statements on defending the state in recent abortion and ongoing capital funding matters, as well as former AG Brnovich’s refusal to defend Kavanagh’s 2022 law banning filming police within 8 feet (a law which the legislature’s own attorneys told them was unconstitutional). Scheduled for Senate Rules Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
HB2003, sponsored by David Livingston (R-28), would slash corporate income taxes nearly in half by 2025, from their current 4.9% to 2.5%. Last year, Republican lawmakers slashed personal income taxes to 2.5% beginning this year, leaving experts concerned that Arizona won’t have enough revenue to sustain critical services once pandemic relief money runs out and the inevitable next recession arrives. Arizona’s tax giveaways already far outpace the entire state budget, and our unbalanced tax structure relies heavily on volatile sales taxes; Arizona is already one of just 11 states with a corporate income tax rate below 5%. Scheduled for House Rules Committee, Monday. Use RTS to OPPOSE.
HB2061, sponsored by Leo Biasiucci (R-30), would ban cities from charging sales taxes on food items. This change would cost the 65 Arizona cities who currently tax food over $150 million a year; lawmakers should not force such a drastic blanket change to cities’ budgets without consulting them. Preemption (legislation that blocks cities’ right to govern themselves) is, sadly, a cherished tradition at the Arizona Capitol — and cutting taxes (and therefore revenue) is a poor solution to Arizona’s problems. Scheduled for House Rules Committee, Monday. OPPOSE.
New this year, we’re leveraging our collective power to unstick a few good bills. Last week, we used My Bill Positions (which we’ve fondly nicknamed “RTS 2.0”) to build support. This week, we’ll work to get them hearings.
If a bill is not assigned to any committee, contact House Speaker Ben Toma to ask him to assign it. If he’s already assigned the bill, contact the committee chair and ask them to put the bill on an agenda. All contact info is listed below.
HB2071, sponsored by Laura Terech (D-4), would finally ban corporal punishment in schools. How is this still a law? The subject is even more relevant in light of new Supt. Tom Horne’s recent eyebrow-raising comments regarding “discipline.” Contact House Education Chair Beverly Pingerelli (R-28)(bpingerelli@azleg.gov / 602-926-3396) and House Judiciary Chair Quang Nguyen (R-1) (qnguyen@azleg.gov / 602-926-3258) to ask that the bill be placed on an agenda. SUPPORT.
HB2137, sponsored by Athena Salman (D-8), would expand eligibility for the Children's Health Insurance Program (KidsCare) to low-income working families who earn under 250 percent of the federal poverty level (about $69,000/yr for a family of 4). KidsCare is a critical need. Right now, Arizona has one of the lowest eligibility thresholds, and accordingly, also the 4th highest rate of uninsured children in the country. 30,000 Arizona kids don’t have health care. The federal government will match Arizona’s investment 5-to-1. Contact House Health Chair Steve Montenegro (R-29) (smontenegro@azleg.gov / 602-926-3635) and House Appropriations Chair David Livingston (R-28) (dlivingston@azleg.gov / 602-926-4178) to ask that the bill be placed on an agenda. SUPPORT.
HB2141, sponsored by Athena Salman (D-8), would require Arizona's Medicaid program to provide comprehensive dental care for pregnant women ages 21+. Dental care for pregnant women is essential for the health of women and babies, and the state's investment would be met with federal dollars. This is at least the sixth consecutive year this proposal has been introduced. Time to pass it already! Contact House Health Chair Steve Montenegro (R-29) (smontenegro@azleg.gov / 602-926-3635) and House Appropriations Chair David Livingston (R-28) (dlivingston@azleg.gov / 602-926-4178) to ask that the bill be placed on an agenda. SUPPORT.
HB2154, sponsored by Keith Seaman (D-16), would cap School Tuition Organization (STO) administration costs at 5%. STOs are a type of private school voucher funded by dollar-for-dollar tax credits, and are currently allowed to keep 10% of donations for administration. This means these lucrative businesses are allowed to pocket $25 million (and growing) in Arizona taxpayer funds each year. Other states cap administration fees at 3-5% maximum. Former state senator Steve Yarbrough helped design Arizona’s STO program for his own personal profit. Contact House Speaker Ben Toma (R-27) (btoma@azleg.gov / 602-926-3298) to ask him to assign the bill to a committee. SUPPORT.
HB2256, sponsored by Andrés Cano (D-20), would increase Arizona’s investment in the Housing Trust Fund to $150 million. The fund provided $10 to $20 million a year for housing for people experiencing homelessness. The money was diverted to the state's general fund during the Great Recession; lawmakers reinstituted it last year. Arizona desperately needs more affordable housing. Metro Phoenix led the nation in rent increases in 2021, and now ranks in the top 10 nationwide for the most severe shortages. Housing analysts have been asking for more investment in the fund for years. Contact House Speaker Ben Toma (R-27) (btoma@azleg.gov / 602-926-3298) to ask him to assign the bill to a committee. SUPPORT.
HB2351, sponsored by Patricia Contreras (D-12), would ban health care professionals from using the abusive, widely discredited practice of LGBT “conversion therapy” on minors. These methods can include electric shocks, induced vomiting, or elastic bands snapped against the skin to create negative associations with same-sex attraction; hypnosis; masculinity workshops; and spiritual counseling. The American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Psychological Association, and other national organizations oppose this "therapy” as destructive and unprofessional. Contact House Health Chair Steve Montenegro (R-29) (smontenegro@azleg.gov / 602-926-3635) and House Judiciary Chair Quang Nguyen (R-1) (qnguyen@azleg.gov / 602-926-3258) to ask that the bill be placed on an agenda. SUPPORT.
2023 Session Timeline
Monday, 1/30 Senate bill introduction deadline Monday, 2/6 House bill introduction deadline Friday, 2/17 Last day for a bill to get out of committees in its originating house Monday, 2/20 Crossover Week begins (most committee hearings are suspended) Friday, 3/24 Last day for a bill to get out of committees in its crossover house Saturday, 4/22 100th Day of Session (the stated end goal; can be changed)
Use RTS. Our elected officials need to know what we think!
Use our website. Civic Engagement Beyond Voting’s website features tons of resources, including a RTS training video that’s 5 minutes well spent.
Attend our Happy Hours. Our guest for this week’s Zoom RTS Happy Hour is Lt. Col. Dana Allmond, recently appointed by Gov Hobbs to head the Department of Veterans' Services. She will share insights into how the new governor’s administration is taking shape, her goals for the department, and her experiences running for the legislature last year in LD17. As always, we’ll also have legislative info and Q&A with Melinda. We’ll meet every Sunday at 4 PM through the end of session; sign up in advance here.
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