CEBV Weekly: 2024 Preview Edition
Plenty of issues. No money. And the lawmakers just want to leave.
Welcome back to another year at our Arizona Legislature. We will do our best to keep events and issues in perspective and in context. We pledge not to overreact to outrageous “statement” bills that will go nowhere. In the same vein, we promise to highlight bills that cause genuine concern, and give insights into lawmakers’ actions, both devious and virtuous.
As always, our involvement is vital. 2024 is going to be a big year. Welcome to the ride!
Top Issues
Ready to scram — already? Lawmakers are making no secret of their desire to wrap up quickly this year. House Speaker Ben Toma (who's termed out of his legislative seat and running for Congress), along with multiple other key Republicans, say they’re hoping for a short session and a quick budget — ideally, ending even before the traditional 100-day point. Given the vast chasm of opinion between the Republican legislative majority and Democratic governor, this will depend on who folds first.
Deficit world. Remember, there’s no surplus anymore to help grease the path for a short session. Last year, Gov. Hobbs reached budget agreement with Republicans by giving each of them millions to spend on pet projects, using every cent of Arizona’s more than $2 billion surplus in the process. This year, with the self-inflicted twin $1 billion specters of Ducey-era tax cuts and pricey universal ESA vouchers dragging our budget hundreds of millions of dollars into the red, there’s no such rabbit for her to pull out of her hat.
Budget clout. It’s important to remember that Hobbs has the final say — though she certainly didn’t act like it last year, when she left the flood of costly universal ESA vouchers untouched while allowing Republicans to hold their line in the sand. Since then, she’s replaced her chief of staff and added a new legislative relations team. We hope they’ll steer her in a smarter direction, recognizing that the public respects power that’s flexed for causes that matter.
If Hobbs is wise, she’ll set expectations early, then follow through when pushed, as Jan Brewer did in 2013 when she indicated she wouldn’t sign any state budget without a Medicaid expansion. Republicans at our legislature continue to be deeply divided; perhaps the only thing they can agree on is that they’d rather agree with each other than with Democrats. To get a budget passed that includes any of her priorities, Hobbs will have to stiffen her spine and wait out the antsy Republicans, going all the way to June 30 and beyond if necessary. We’re looking forward to seeing her budget proposal, which comes out Friday.
Election timing, and a special session. In 2022, lawmakers raised the threshold for automatic ballot recounts to 0.5%. CEBV opposed this bill because it all but guarantees a recount for all ballots cast in virtually every election. And now, as expected, elections officials are sounding the alarm. They warn they’ll have to scramble to complete primary recounts in time to get general election ballots to military and overseas voters. They also note (correctly) that when humans scramble, the chances of error tend to go up — something nobody wants.
Fixing this "perfect storm" will require legislative action. (Listen to Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer discuss options here.) And in order for a fix to take effect in time, Gov. Hobbs will need to call a special session. This can happen concurrently with the regular session; as with the last time this happened in 2018, lawmakers could simply gavel out of one and into the other on the same day. Worried elections officials are hoping that happens soon.
Water woes. Our brutal, record-shattering summer, including the most 110-degree days in a single year and the hottest month ever for any US city, has cast Arizona’s long-term water future into sharp relief. Gov. Hobbs has ended the controversial water lease with Saudi-owned alfalfa farm Fondomonte, but corporate drilling is still literally sinking rural towns. Rep. Gail Griffin (R-19) has long blocked rural groundwater management in Arizona; she’s now even getting on the bad side of extremists like Sen. Sonny Borrelli (R-30). Will this be the year her colleagues finally go around her?
Public education. Our snowballing state budget deficit, driven by former Gov. Ducey’s tax cuts for the wealthy and runaway universal ESA vouchers, means there’s little hope of increasing funding to public education this year. Instead, advocates are relying on Gov. Hobbs’ promise that K-12 education won’t see cuts.
This week, Hobbs released an accountability plan for universal ESA vouchers that takes first steps toward closing some of the glaring loopholes in this opaque, scandal-ridden program. Legislative Republicans and voucher lobbyists clutched their pearls, hyperventilating at the mere mention of background checks on adults who work with children. (What?) A much-needed renewal of Prop 123, which expires next June, is also receiving bipartisan discussion.
Lawmaker turnover. The House is currently down a member. Rep. Athena Salman (D-8) resigned effective Dec. 31; her replacement should be sworn in within a couple of weeks. But we could also lose another lawmaker relatively soon: last month, Rep. Leezah Sun (D-22) was brought before the House Ethics Committee, and faces a second ethics hearing on Jan. 11. Consequences include a possible expulsion, which would require a two-thirds supermajority vote of the House.
As of this writing, lawmakers have introduced just 218 bills, a drop in the bucket compared to last year’s whopping 1,674. Many of those 218 push the same manufactured, divisive culture-war issues that earned vetoes from Gov. Hobbs last year. None of them will get past her this year, either. CEBV’s longstanding policy is not to waste time on bills that have no chance of passage, so we’ll only tell you about these again if something changes.
A few committees are meeting this first week, but CEBV isn’t tracking any of the handful of bills being heard. Use this week to brush up on your knowledge of Request to Speak, so you’re ready to weigh in for the onslaught we all know is coming.
Need a little help? We’ll offer our RTS 101 training on Monday nights starting Monday, Jan. 8. That link and so many others are available on our Linktree:
Why use Request to Speak? It’s important to register support or opposition to key bills for several reasons:
People on every side of an issue use RTS; it’s critical to show we’re watching and we’re numerous
Legislators review RTS, sometimes even changing their votes based on the names and quantity of “votes”
Media consults RTS to gauge the “heat” of an issue and how public opinion is registering
Comments are sometimes read in committees during debate; it’s important to get them into the record
Once your RTS fingers are prepped, join our lively statewide community of savvy politicos at our CEBV Happy Hour zoom call, starting this Sunday, Jan. 7 at 4 PM. We’ll discuss the Arizona state legislature with featured guest Rep. Marcelino Quiñonez (D-11), fire up our crystal ball to discuss the 2024 session, and explore the often-confusing issues our state is confronting. The second hour of the call focuses on the other areas of state government we intend to monitor this year, along with ways to make our voices heard even more loudly.
2024 Session Timeline
Monday, 1/8 2024 Legislative Session begins Monday, 2/5 Bill introduction deadline Friday, 2/16 Last day for a bill to get out of committees in its originating house Monday, 2/19 Crossover Week begins (most committee hearings are suspended) Friday, 3/22 Last day for a bill to get out of committees in its crossover house (and the last day to use RTS until a budget drops) Tuesday, 4/16 100th Day of Session (the stated end goal; can be changed)
Flag this handy list of contact info, committee chairs and assignments, freshly updated for 2024.
Know the committee chairs and legislative leaders. For a bill to have any chance at becoming law, it must first be assigned to committee. Bills that never get assigned or heard quietly die. My Bill Positions, fondly nicknamed “RTS 2.0,” is one way to help move a stalled bill, but there are other ways too. If a bill isn’t assigned, contact the House Speaker and the Senate President. If a bill is assigned but isn’t on an agenda, contact the chair of the committee it was assigned to. Consult this committee list for contact info and this flowchart for how to weigh in as a bill becomes law.
Be ready to contact your legislators. Look up your legislative district here. Store contact info for your representatives and senator in your phone now, so it’s easy to reach out later. Pro tip: flag each with a keyword such as “Rep” so you can pull them all up at once.
Bookmark CEBV’s Linktree. Want other ways to take action? Need to stay informed? Looking for our social media, inspiration, or self-care tips? Look no further than our Linktree.
Request to Speak. Sign up for an account if you don’t have one, dust off your password if you do.
Use our website. Civic Engagement Beyond Voting’s website features tons of resources, including a RTS training video that’s 5 minutes well spent.
Attend our Happy Hours. CEBV’s Zoom RTS Happy Hours start up again on January 7! The first portion will feature a legislative preview and Q&A with Melinda and a featured guest. On January 7, that’s Rep. Marcelino Quiñonez (D-11). The second portion will include information on the other areas of state government we intend to keep our eye on this year, along with ways to make our voices heard even more loudly. We’ll meet every Sunday at 4 PM through the end of session; sign up in advance here.
Pick up the phone. If a state lawmaker gets 10 calls a day on one topic, their phone is ringing off the hook. By contrast, emails are easy to ignore: each lawmaker gets hundreds every day. When you call, be polite and introduce yourself by name. If you’re a constituent, say so. And consider calling less-friendly lawmakers, to avoid clogging the works for the ones who share our values. Lawmakers’ admins are almost always friendly and happy to pass along messages.
Keep it up. We’ll be back every Sunday with a fresh update. Check back weekly for actions to take, or simply enter your email address below to have the entire text of these updates emailed to you. (This is driven by Substack, separately from our CEBV emails. Those will still exist: as always, they’ll contain additional information and calls to action, along with a link to the content here.)